Why the surge in earthquakes lately? Could a bigger one be next? | Explainer
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The death toll from the 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar has surpassed 2,700, with thousands injured, according to local media reports on Tuesday. Senior General. Min Aung Hlaing, the head of Myanmar’s military government, stated at a forum in Naypyitaw that 2,719 deaths have been confirmed, along with 4,521 injuries and 441 people still missing, according to Western News online. With rescue operations still ongoing and many affected areas yet to be reached, the numbers are expected to rise further.
A woman walks past destroyed buildings in Mandalay on April 1, 2025, four days after a major earthquake struck central Myanmar.(AFP)
It seems like earthquakes have become more frequent lately, causing massive destruction and tragic loss of life. Does this indicate that an even more powerful earthquake could strike soon, potentially leading to catastrophic devastation on a global scale?
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The United States Geological Survey (USGS) explains that short-term fluctuations in seismic activity are a normal part of the natural variation in earthquake rates.
“An increase or decrease in global seismicity does not necessarily indicate that a large earthquake is about to occur,” the agency says.
The ComCat earthquake catalogue has shown a rise in recorded earthquakes in recent years, but this is not due to a higher number of earthquakes—it’s because there are now more seismic instruments in place, allowing for the detection and recording of more earthquakes.
Why it feels like earthquakes are on the rise
The British Geological Survey suggests several reasons why it may appear that we are encountering more earthquakes.
Increased visibility of earthquakes in populated areas: Earthquakes that occur in densely populated regions are more likely to grab attention than those in remote areas. When a series of earthquakes strikes population centres, it can give the impression that their frequency has risen. Additionally, as the global population grows, more people are living in earthquake-prone areas, which means that while the total number of earthquakes may stay the same, their impact is greater.
Earthquake clustering: Although earthquake occurrence generally follows a steady long-term average, seismic activity often happens in clusters due to the random nature of tectonic processes. People tend to notice these clusters of activity, but they don’t typically observe the quieter periods in between, nor do they remember past clusters once they’re over.
Improved global communication: Advances in global communication have made it possible to receive immediate updates on significant earthquakes from around the world. This means more people are now aware of earthquakes and their devastating consequences, leading to greater public recognition of seismic events.
Some stats for your reference
The National Earthquake Information Center now tracks around 20,000 earthquakes annually, averaging about 55 per day. According to USGS data, due to advancements in communication and growing interest in natural disasters, the public is now informed about earthquakes faster than ever.
Long-term data (since 1900) indicates that, on average, there are 16 major earthquakes each year, including 15 magnitude 7 quakes and 1 magnitude 8 or greater. Over the past 40-50 years, we’ve exceeded this average about a dozen times.
The highest total occurred in 2010, with 23 major quakes. However, in some years, the total was significantly lower, such as in 1989 (6 major quakes) and 1988 (7 major quakes), both well below the long-term average of 16.
Recent earthquakes over magnitude 7
March 30, 2025 – Tonga Earthquake (M7.0): The earthquake west of the Tonga Trench resulted from reverse faulting, with rupture occurring on either a steeply dipping reverse fault or a shallowly dipping thrust fault. Given the depth and location, the shallowly dipping thrust fault at the plate interface is the more likely source. This event was primarily caused by subduction zone activity in the region.
March 28, 2025 – Myanmar Earthquake (M7.7): This earthquake occurred due to strike-slip faulting along the India-Eurasia plate boundary. The rupture likely took place on the right-lateral Sagaing Fault, a major tectonic feature in the region. The finite fault solution indicates motion along a north-striking right-lateral fault, confirming its association with the ongoing tectonic activity between the Indian and Sunda plates.
February 8, 2025 – Cayman Islands Earthquake (M7.6): This event was triggered by strike-slip faulting near the North America–Caribbean plate boundary. The rupture occurred along a steeply dipping structure, with possible right-lateral or left-lateral motion. The tectonic movement between the North America and Caribbean plates at a rate of approximately 20 mm per year was the primary driver of this earthquake.
January 7, 2025 – Tibetan Plateau Earthquake (M7.1): The earthquake in the southern Tibetan Plateau was caused by normal faulting at shallow depths within the Eurasian plate, north of the Himalayan mountain boundary. The fault responsible was oriented perpendicular to the plate boundary, indicating crustal extension in the region. This type of faulting is typical for intra-plate earthquakes in areas experiencing tectonic stress adjustments.
6 deadliest earthquakes since 1950
2010 Haiti Earthquake: The Port-au-Prince metropolitan area was devastated, with an estimated 300,000 deaths and 1.5 million people left homeless. The earthquake caused widespread destruction and a humanitarian crisis.
2008 Sichuan Earthquake: The earthquake killed nearly 90,000 people, injured 375,000, and left over 5 million homeless. More than half of Beichuan town was destroyed due to the seismic impact and water release from a nearby lake.
2005 Kashmir Earthquake: A magnitude-7.6 quake struck Pakistan-administered Kashmir and NWFP, also affecting India and Afghanistan. At least 79,000 people died, and 32,000 buildings collapsed. It was among the most destructive earthquakes of modern times.
2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake & Tsunami: A magnitude-9.1 undersea earthquake struck off Sumatra on December 26, 2004. The tsunami waves, some reaching 30 feet (9 meters) high, spread across 13 countries, killing at least 230,000 people. Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Maldives, and Thailand suffered the worst damage.
1976 Tangshan Earthquake (China): On July 28, 1976, a magnitude-7.5 earthquake nearly wiped out the coal-mining city of Tangshan. The official death toll was 242,000, but estimates suggest up to 655,000 deaths. At least 700,000 were injured, and destruction extended as far as Beijing.
1970 Great Peruvian Earthquake: On May 31, 1970, a massive earthquake off western Peru triggered landslides, collapsing many poorly built structures. Around 70,000 people died, and significant infrastructure damage resulted.
